By Linda Conner Lambeck

WESTPORT–Over the past couple of years, actual annual enrollments in the Westport school system have not managed to reach what was projected by professional demographers hired by the district.

Still, it’s a number the district counts on to build its annual school budget, determine classroom counts and, when necessary, redraw school district boundary lines.

MP Planning Group

Last week, board members old and new were primed on the latest set of projections made by Mike Zuba of MP Planning Group.

Rather than a single set of numbers, there were three, all showing district enrollment to either rise or remain steady over the next few years. And, while middle of the road projections were billed as the most likely trajectory for future enrollment, it was clear that there were no guarantees.

As of Sept. 5, the Kindergarten through 12^th Grade enrollment stood at 5,214, not the 5,230 demographers predicted there could be.

Greens Farms El off 7% from projections

The most prominent discrepancy was at elementary level came at Greens Farms Elementary school. It was 35 students short of the 488 students anticipated.

Overall, a smaller kindergarten cohort and lower than projected housing sales were blamed for the elementary level shortfall.

New kindergarten age requirements

District officials knew going into the 2025-26 school year that a state change in kindergarten age requirements (kids now must be 5 by September 1 unless granted a waiver) would impact the numbers. They just didn’t know by how much.

As time goes on, Zuba said, fewer waivers are being sought. That should lead to more predictable kindergarten numbers going forward.

With an overall population of 27,996, Westport sees about 180 births each year, according to the data Zuba provided. Added to that are students whose parents move into the district.

To a large extent, in-migration is dictated by availability. Home sales over the past three years have remained flat at about 309 annually.

New developments spur potential redistricting

There are, however, more multi-family developments coming online, several of which Zuba told the board he has been tracking.

A 19-unit Wilton Road project, recently completed, generated 15 new students.

Two projects under construction at 85 Post Road West and Hiawatha Lane will add 225 new units. It is predicted that those projects will result in as many as 94 additional students who would feed into Kings Highway School, increasing enrollment by as much as 9 percent. This year, Kings Highway has 451 students.

The district already plans to redistrict some Kings Highway students into Coleytown Elementary School once the new Long Lots School is complete in the fall of 2027. The new Long Lots is being built to include the Stepping Stones Pre-K program that is now at Coleytown.

Because of the time it takes to redistrict, Scarice said he is likely to come to the board with proposed redistricting scenarios to consider as soon as next fall.

Going forward, the district was provided with three enrollment scenarios. The middle road is considered the most likely trajectory, according to Zuba.

The medium scenario has K-12 enrollment increasing by about 3 percent over the next five years, peaking in 2032-33 at 5,420. Most of that growth would occur at the middle and high school level which is less impacted by enrollment shifts.

At Staples, where enrollment peaked at 1,905 in 2017-18, there has since been an enrollment decline followed by a stabilization over the past couple of years.  This year enrollment stands at 1,651. The medium scenario has it going back up to 1,808 students by 2032-33.

Questions from new members

Stephen Shackelford, a new board member, asked what the report really means to the district in terms of budget planning.

Very little at the middle and high school level, he was told.

At the elementary level, enrollment increases are more consequential. They could trigger the need for additional teachers if class sizes cross over a threshold set by the board.

Assistant Schools Superintendent John Bayers said he waits every August to send out class assignment notices when one or two students could force an additional section.

“We are always watching that like hawks,” Bayers said.

The district used to also have a teacher reserve built into the budget to handle unanticipated section increases. It no longer does and actually budgets a savings from teacher turnover.

Andy Frankel, another new board member, pressed Zuba about potential factors other than housing and birthrates.

“There has been a lot of buzz about what some called the Mamdani effect, a potential exodus from New York City,” said Frankel. He was referring to Zohran Mamdani, mayor elect of NYC.

Frankel asked if some of that potential exodus could land in Westport the way the district saw increased enrollment during the pandemic.

“I am definitely aware of it,” said Zuba. “If anything comes of it, it will likely be short-lived.”

Any increase would be tempered by the town’s available housing supply, Zuba added.

Board Chair Lee Goldstein wondered if it might be prudent, and less impactful to families, to use the enrollment projections to redistrict some streets in town before students move to them, particularly in the Saugatuck neighborhood.

Even with the boost of redistricted students from Long Lots, Saugatuck’s enrollment is projected to continue to decrease slightly over the next five years.

Zuba said redrawing lines before students live in an area is something other districts do.

Scarice warned that any such change must be mindful not to impact middle school enrollments, which at present are where the district wants them.