This week, we are splitting the Watching with Susan Granger column into two parts. Today’s column predicts the awardees in the “technical” categories. Tomorrow’s column covers the “glamor” categories.
The date of March 27th is one of the Academy’s favorites on the cinematic calendar. This year’s will be the fourth ceremony held on that date. The first was in 1957, when the Best Foreign Film category was added; the second was in 1973, when “The Godfather” vied with “Cabaret”; and in 1995, David Letterman hosted one of Oscar’s most watched Oscar telecasts – with a U.S. audience of 48 million-plus.
This coming Sunday, the 94th annual Academy Awards at Los Angeles’ Dolby Theater will be hosted by three comediennes: Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes and Regina Hall. (The Oscars have gone host-free since the 90th ceremony with Jimmy Kimmel.)
Years ago – when “Titanic,” “The Godfather,” and “Lord of the Rings” won – they reflected populist tastes too. But when “The Dark Knight” failed to get a nomination, suddenly the Oscars seemed less relevant. So, in addition to the usual 23 categories, this year the Academy will include a “Twitter fan favorite,” making space for popular picks like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “No Time to Die.”
Because of the Academy’s push for diversity and inclusion, 4,421 of the Academy’s approximately 9,400 current active members are relatively new and many of them foreign. That makes the winners on a preferential ballot harder to predict since non-English films are more visible than ever.
Nevertheless, as tragedy continues to rage around the globe, it’s hoped that the motion picture industry still gives people laughter, hope and inspiration.
In 2021, 276 films received Oscar nominations.
For Best Cinematography, nominees are “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “West Side Story.”
Vividly capturing vast Montana vistas with haunting, psychological horror, Ari Wegner (“The Power of the Dog”) is only the 2nd woman ever nominated in this category, following Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”). Bruno Delbonnel contrasted light and shadow for Macbeth’s tragedy, weaving Shakespeare’s deep psychological threads, while Janusz Kaminski juggled flares to augment the violent gang-fight sequence in “West Side Story.”
MY PREDICTION: “The Power of the Dog”
For Best Costume Design, nominees are “Cruella,” “Cyrano,” “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley” and “West Side Story.”
From the fantasy sci-fi world of “Dune” to ‘70s London scene in “Cruella,” costumers faced interesting challenges. Indeed, Guillermo Del Toro’s longtime costumer Luis Sequeira assembled 242 costumes for “Nightmare Alley,” aging them to look like they’ve been in and out of trunks for years.
MY PREDICTION: “Cruella”
For Best Visual Effects, nominees are “Dune,” “Free Guy,” “No Time to Die,” “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” was last year’s biggest hit, yet this is its only Oscar nomination. But it’s hard to beat the way Denis Villenueve used VFX to heighten the photorealism of “Dune.”
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Makeup and Hairstyling, nominees are “Coming to America 2,” “Cruella,” “Dune,” “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” and “House of Gucci.”
“Coming 2 America” showed Eddie Murphy and Arsenio Hall as many different characters, yet it was absolute magic how artisans used prosthetics to transform Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye Bakker; a process that took two hours every day.
MY PREDICTION: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
For Best Documentary, nominees are “Ascension,” “Attica,” “Flee,” “Summer of Soul,” and “Writing With Fire.”
Denmark’s “Flee” about an Afghan refugee is the first film ever nominated as Best Documentary, Best International Feature and Best Animation. If I were an Oscar voter, it would be my choice. On the other hand, the musical time-capsule “Summer of Soul” is the Sundance hit, winning the Spirit Award.
MY PREDICTION: “Summer of Soul”
For Best International Film, nominees are “Drive My Car” (Japan), “Flee” (Denmark), “The Hand of God” (Italy), “Luana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan), and “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway).
As always, it doesn’t matter what language is spoke; the only thing that counts is the artistry.
Every year, there’s a longshot. Last year, it was Tunisia’s “The Man Who Sold His Skin.” This year, it’s Pawo Choyning Dorji’s “Luana: A Yak in the Classroom” from the tiny, long-isolated nation of Bhutan, which became the world’s last country to open to TV and the Internet in 1999. It’s about a reluctant teacher who is dispatched to remote Luana and his friendship with a yak herder; distributed by Samuel Goldwyn Films, it’s available on many cable and streaming channels.
MY PREDICTION: “Drive My Car”
For Best Animation, nominees are “Encanto,” “Flee,” “Luca,” “The Mitchells vs. the Machines,” and “Raya and the Last Dragon.”
Disney dominates this category with “Encanto,” “Luca,” and “Raya,” yet “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” won at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards. It uses different animation techniques to tell the story of an aspiring filmmaker and her family save the world from a software-driven apocalypse – and it’s been promoted by the most active Oscar campaign since the days of Harvey Weinstein.
MY PREDICTION: “Encanto”
This year, the Academy will present the following eight Awards off-camera – to be acknowledged later in the ‘live’ broadcast, explaining, “When deciding how to produce the Oscars, we recognize it’s a live event television show an we must prioritize the television audience to increase viewer engagement and keep the show vital, kinetic and relevant.”
For Best Editing, nominees are “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “Tick, Tick…Boom!” The American Cinema Editors (ACE) chose “King Richard” as best dramatic feature and “tick, tick…Boom!” as best comedy.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Production Design, nominees are “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “West Side Story.”
Working with Guillermo de Toro, first-time nominee Tamara Deverell delved into art history for “Nightmare Alley,” building an eye-popping carnival from ground up on location in Toronto. For the pivotal “West Side Story” fight, Adam Stockhausen found a sanitation department salt shed with high windows, set near a highway off-ramp.
The Art Directors Guild cited “Nightmare Alley” as period feature, “Dune” as fantasy feature and “No Time to Die” as contemporary feature. FYI: for ”Dune,” artisans built three different worlds and invented a new mode of transportation.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Sound, nominees are “Belfast,” Dune,” “No Time to Die,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “West Side Story.”
The aural experience of “Dune” seems hard to beat with sandworms and orinthopters, as well as fierce desert storms. FYI: the subtle, crunching sound when Paul Atreides (Timothee Chalmet) steps on the ‘spice-laden sand’ (a valuable, hallucinogenic substance) on the planet Arrakis was created when the sound editors laced the sand underfoot with Rice Krispies and recorded.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Original Score, nominees are “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “Encanto,” “Parallel Mothers,” and “The Power of the Dog.”
Germaine Franco (“Encanto”) is the 10th woman and first Latina nominee in this category. On the other hand, this is the 12th nomination for Hans Zimmer (“Duna”), who won in 1994 for “The Lion King.” His score features a bagpipe player and a cellist whose sound was twisted into a Tibetan long horn.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Original Song, nominees are “Be Alive” (“King Richard”), “Dos Oruguitas” (“Encanto”), “Down to Joy” (Belfast”), “No Time to Die” (“No Time to Die”), and “Somehow You Do” (“Four Good Days”).
While Diane Warren (“Four Good Days”) nabs her 5th consecutive Oscar nomination in this category, her 7th in the last 8 years and her 12th overall, if she doesn’t win, she’ll break her own record for the most noms in this category without a win. In contrast, Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Encanto”) has an opportunity to become the 17th person to win an Emmy/Grammy/Oscar/Tony Grand Slam known as the EGOT. And if Billie Eilish (“No Time to Die”) wins, she’ll become the category’s youngest-ever winner.
MY PREDICTION: “No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
For Best Documentary (short subject), nominees are “Audible,” “Lead Me Home,” “The Queen of Basketball,” “Three Songs for Benazir,” and “When We Were Bullies.”
There’s a feel-good story about a pioneering woman basketball player and a personal probing of a childhood bullying incident, along with a sweeping portrait of the homeless crisis in three major U.S. cities, a rare glimpse of a deaf high school football team and a peek at life inside an Afghani refugee camp.
MY PREDICTION: “Queen of Basketball”
For Best Live Action Short, nominees are “Ala Kachu – Take and Run,” “The Dress,” “The Long Goodbye,” “On My Mind,” and “Please Hold.”
Riz Ahmed was nominated as Best Actor as the drummer losing his hearing in “Sound of Metal,” and now he’s back with a second nomination – this time for “The Long Goodbye” about a British/Pakistani family’s ill-fated encounter with far-right marchers.
MY PREDICTION: “The Long Goodbye”
For Best Animated Short, nominees are “An Affair of the Art,” “Bestia,” “Boxballet,” “Robin Robin,” and “The Windshield Wiper.”
MY PREDICTION: “Robin Robin”
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