This week, we are splitting the Watching with Susan Granger column into two parts. Yesterday’s column revealed Susan’s predictions in the “technical” categories. Today’s column covers the “glamor” categories.
The date of March 27th is one of the Academy’s favorites on the cinematic calendar. This year’s will be the fourth ceremony held on that date. The first was in 1957, when the Best Foreign Film category was added; the second was in 1973, when “The Godfather” vied with “Cabaret”; and in 1995, David Letterman hosted one of Oscar’s most watched Oscar telecasts – with a U.S. audience of 48 million-plus.
This coming Sunday, the 94th annual Academy Awards at Los Angeles’ Dolby Theater will be hosted by three comediennes: Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes and Regina Hall. (The Oscars have gone host-free since the 90th ceremony with Jimmy Kimmel.)
Years ago – when “Titanic,” “The Godfather,” and “Lord of the Rings” won – they reflected populist tastes too. But when “The Dark Knight” failed to get a nomination, suddenly the Oscars seemed less relevant. So, in addition to the usual 23 categories, this year the Academy will include a “Twitter fan favorite,” making space for popular picks like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “No Time to Die.”
Because of the Academy’s push for diversity and inclusion, 4,421 of the Academy’s approximately 9,400 current active members are relatively new and many of them foreign. That makes the winners on a preferential ballot harder to predict since non-English films are more visible than ever.
Nevertheless, as tragedy continues to rage around the globe, it’s hoped that the motion picture industry still gives people laughter, hope and inspiration.
Among the 276 eligible films, there are 10 contenders for Best Picture (in alphabetical order):
“Belfast” is Kenneth Branagh’s poignant memoir about growing up in Northern Ireland in 1969.
“CODA” is an acronym for Child of Deaf Adults. This heart-tugging family drama was considered the underdog until it won the SAG Ensemble Award & Producer Guild. It’s the feel-good movie for these dark times.
“Don’t Look Up” is Adam McKay’s scorching, end-of-the-world satire with a star-studded cast
“Drive My Car” is Japan’s three-hour drama about a widowed theater director and his driver
“Dune” is Denis Villenueve’s visually spectacular, escapist, sci-fi saga
“King Richard” revolves around the demanding father of the tennis-champion Williams sisters
“Licorice Pizza” is Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘70s comedy set in the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s
“Nightmare Alley” is Guillermo del Toro’s downbeat remake of a hardboiled noir classic
“The Power of the Dog” profiles a Montana rancher in conflict with his brother and his new wife
“West Side Story”: This energetic, updated musical is Steven Spielberg’s 12th Best Film nomination, extending his lead as the most nominated filmmaker in this category.
The favorites are “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog,” both made by streamers and both directed by women. The Best Picture statuette is given to the film’s producers, not its director, and – once again – it will be the final award in the telecast. Last year, they expected Chadwick Boseman to be Best Actor and had planned a tribute to the late actor. Instead. Anthony Hopkins was the surprise winner.
MY PREDICTION: “CODA”
For Best Director, nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”), Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”), Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”). There have been 26 picture/director splits, including five in the past decade.
Predictably, one international director (Hamaguchi) got the nod, but many voters may assume he’ll win in the international category. With eight nominations spanning six decades, Spielberg already has two wins (“Schindler’s List,” “Saving Private Ryan”). Paul Thomas Anderson was nominated twice before (“There Will Be Blood,” “Phantom Thread”).
Writer/actor Kenneth Branagh is now the first person to be nominated in seven different categories, so he seems overdue for a win, while Jane Campion (“The Piano”), winner of the Directors’ Guild Award, is the first woman ever to be nominated twice in this category. If she wins, she’ll be the third woman, following Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”).
MY PREDCTION: Jane Campion
For Best Actor, nominees are Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick…Boom!”), Will Smith (“King Richard”), and Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”).
A real-life couple – Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz – were both nominated in these Leading categories, although neither is expected to win. Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield and Will Smith have been nominated previously but have not won in this category. And it’s been 12 years since the winner didn’t come from a Best Pic nominee.
MY PREDICTION: Will Smith
For Best Actress, nominees are Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”), and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer).
For the second year in a row, this race is wide open since none of the nominees is from a Best Picture contender. Although she was shut out of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Kristen Stewart nabbed her first Oscar nomination. Although she was nominated for “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), Jessica Chastain has never won in this category. Perhaps this is her year. It’s a real nail-biter!
MY PREDCTION: Jessica Chastain
For Best Supporting Actor, nominees are Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”), Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”) and J.K. Simons “(Being the Ricardos”).
Another real-life couple – Jesse Plemons and Kirsten Dunst – were both nominated in supporting categories this year, and Kodi Smit-McPhee won almost all the Critics’ Awards. But Troy Kotsur, as the proud fisherman struggling to relate to his music-loving daughter, is the first deaf man to earn an Oscar nod for acting and he already won the coveted Screen Actors Guild Award.
MY PREDICTION: Troy Kotsur
For Best Supporting Actress, nominees are Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”).
Perhaps the biggest shock was that Rita Moreno wasn’t nominated; it would have been a sentimental bookend to her win for the original “West Side Story” in 1961. In her place, there’s Ariana DeBose, who really is Puerto Rican and turned down the role four times before auditioning. Voters in this category seem to love newcomers and DeBose’s is the splashiest.
MY PREDICTION: Ariana DeBose
For Best Original Screenplay, nominees are “Belfast,” “Don’t Look Up,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” and “The Worst Person in the World.”
Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”) broke his own record for the most different categories in which one person has been nominated (Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Live Action Short). Based on his childhood memories, “Belfast” is a love letter to a city and its disintegrating peace.
MY PREDICTION: “Belfast”
For Best Adapted Screenplay, nominees are “CODA,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “The Lost Daughter” and “The Power of the Dog.”
Jane Campion already won a Best Original Screenplay Oscar in 1993 for “The Piano.” Will she win again? Or will it be Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter”? If Gyllenhaal wins, she’d be the first screenwriter in the 21st century to do so without the film also being a Best Picture nominee.
MY PREDICTION: “CODA”
For Best Cinematography, nominees are “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “West Side Story.”
Vividly capturing vast Montana vistas with haunting, psychological horror, Ari Wegner (“The Power of the Dog”) is only the 2nd woman ever nominated in this category, following Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”). Bruno Delbonnel contrasted light and shadow for Macbeth’s tragedy, weaving Shakespeare’s deep psychological threads, while Janusz Kaminski juggled flares to augment the violent gang-fight sequence in “West Side Story.”
MY PREDICTION: “The Power of the Dog”
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